Originally Posted by rbella
That would be a difficult task since he wasn't in the Senate at the time of the vote. |
Originally Posted by valabdalnabi
No , I mean the judgement for: 1. not voting to go to war with Iraq-for supposed weapons of mass destruction that they never found...... |
McCain, Obama healthy for eight years as President, says actuarial firm New York, Sept.26 (ANI): An actuarial firm in the United States has said that both John McCain and Barack Obama would be cleared for insurance coverage if they approached in their capacity as President of the United States. Obama has a history of smoking, and McCain is 72 years old with a history of skin cancer. But neither candidate is a bad bet to live through two terms as president of the United States, according to a statistical analysis performed by an actuarial firm. According to John M. Bragg and Associates Inc., an Atlanta-based actuarial firm, McCain has 8.4 healthy years ahead of him, making him eligible, albeit barely, to serve two terms as the country's commander-in-chief. Obama can look forward to more than two decades - 21.9 years to be exact - of healthy living. Healthy years differ from life expectancy in that they refer to the number of years a person will live without requiring assisted living or suffer a debilitating illness such as Alzheimer's disease, not to the average number of years a person has left to live. Bragg and Associates decided to compute the candidates' healthy years as a "public service" to voters. Either candidate has not contracted the company, nor is it endorsing one. "Health expectancy is one of our specialties," owner John Bragg told FOXNews.com. "We've been doing this for more than 20 years, and we were interested in knowing whether the two candidates would be healthy for two terms. We had access through their Web sites to review their health situations. So we took a look," he added. Actuaries specialize in risk. Using lifestyle and health information, they calculate a person's risk of injury, sickness, disability and death. Among the pros and cons used to calculate McCain's longevity were his four bouts with melanoma - the deadliest type of skin cancer - as well as his degenerative arthritis, still-active 97-year-old mother and his treadmill EKG, which is in line with someone 10 years younger. To gauge Obama's health, Brooks took into account that he is also in extremely good health, with low cholesterol, triglyceride and blood pressure levels, as well as a very low body fat percentage. On the downside, however, Obama is considered a smoker, even though he has recently quit. Obama's medical records also noted some mild respiratory problems and a family history of cancer on his mother's side. But Brooks said neither is expected to substantially impact his longevity. Although the numbers show that Obama has more than double the number of healthy years ahead of him than McCain does, Brooks said that has more to do with age than with health. Brooks also noted that the healthy-year calculations are misleading in that they put Obama at about age 69 when his health starts to fail and McCain at better than 80 years old. "It has less to do with health and more with survival of the fittest," Brooks said. "You get more credit the longer you live. McCain already has 25 years on Obama, so Obama still has to survive the next 25 years before he can get credit for them." (ANI) |
Originally Posted by *Stargazer*
Here's an interesting little article for those who are convinced John McCain is going to die next February. McCain, Obama healthy for eight years as President, says actuarial firm - Yahoo! India News |
Monday, August 4, 2008, 02:24 PM The Atlanta Journal-Constitution An Atlanta actuarial firm says both presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama “can reasonably be expected to serve two full terms in good health.” But just barely. The 30-year-old Bragg actuarial company, which specializes in morbidity and mortality calculations, gives 71-year-old McCain a “healthy expectancy” of 8.4 years, taking into account his four bouts with melanoma of the skin. Barack Obama, who turned 47 today, can expect 21.9 years of good health — a forecast shortened by 10 percent or so by his history of cigarette smoking. “Either candidate can be expected to serve two full terms, without age or health being an issue,” said John M. Bragg, the firm chairman. The company drew a distinction “health expectancy” and the more usual term “life expectancy.” “In this analysis, ‘healthy’ means the person does not require the care provided by an assisted living facility and is free of Alzheimer’s disease,” Bragg said. Age may be second only to race as a volatile issue in this presidential campaign. McCain, who has another birthday on Aug. 29, has taken pains to portray himself as a man of both vigor and good genes — sometimes bringing along his 96-year-old mother to campaign events. James C. Brooks, a senior Bragg actuary, said the firm ran the numbers on Obama and McCain out of the same curiosity that most voters have. Brooks said McCain’s health expectancy because of the candidate’s experience with skin cancer. “Less so than the cigarette smoking of Barack, but more so because he’s older,” he said. The years assigned to each candidates are averages based on demographically similar pools of people, Brooks said. “They’re not predictors,” he said. Either candidate could beat his expectancy numbers, or fall short. Accuracy could also depend on whether the health details publicly revealed by the candidates have been accurate, Brooks added. The Bragg actuarial study is to appear next month in a newsletter published by the Society of Actuaries. |
An MIT statistical brainiac says John McCain would not only survive his term if elected president, but would likely do so in good health, turning the actuarial tables on critics who question the GOP nominee’s age and physical condition. Boston-based actuary Stephen Kraysler gives McCain a 94.5 percent chance of surviving his first term, while his Democratic opponent Sen. Barack Obama has a 99.5 percent chance. “People are concerned about McCain’s age, but these numbers prove he’s not going to keel over anytime soon,” Kraysler said. Actuarial science is used by insurance companies to assess risk based on statistical tables and models. McCain’s health has gone under increased scrutiny since the 72-year-old chose Alaska governor Sarah Palin to be his No. 2 last month. Democratic opponents, including Boston native and Tinseltown action stud Matt Damon, have painted Palin as inexperienced and say she could be “just a heartbeat away” from taking over the Oval Office. But Kraylser argued the Social Security actuarial tables used by Damon have a higher mortality rate because they are making estimations for about 100,000 people in the same age group and are less accurate. Another actuarial company has already said McCain has a 92 percent chance of surviving through two terms, and said he has another 8.4 years left in good health. “I’ve seen remarks that (McCain) has a 1 in 3 probability of dying. That’s greatly overstated,” said James Brooks, a senior actuary at the Atlanta-based Bragg’s, a company that specializes in predicting mortality and morbidity. Obama has a 98.5 percent chance of surviving his first term, and is expected to have another 21.9 years of healthy living, according to Brooks. Brooks said he based his projections on the histories of men with similar ages and medical backgrounds. In McCain’s case, that means a 72-year-old man with a history of melanoma and degenerative arthritis, and for Obama, that’s a 44-year-old with a history of smoking. “Either candidate can be expected to serve two full terms, without age or health being an issue,” said John M. Bragg, chairman of the firm. Stephen Hess, a former staffer in both former Presidents Dwight Eisenhower and Richard Nixon administrations, said considering both the health of the presidential candidate and whether or not a vice presidential candidate is fit to take over is fair game in a campaign. “The only reason we have a vice president, basically, is to succeed the president if it comes to that,” Hess said. “However, John McCain would appear to be doing very well. If family history is any indication, his mother is 96 years old.” Kraysler argued that while the question of health is fair, the fear of McCain’s age is not. “Voters aren’t wrong to ask the questions. They are wrong in assuming it’s a huge risk, because the numbers just don’t show that,” Kraysler said. |